Tuesday, March 1, 2016

My election prediction

With the exception of one election, I have successfully predicted every presidential election since Nixon. I've often hated the result, but I've been able to successfully taste the atmosphere and predict the winner. The one exception was Bill Clinton's first win. Of course, I can't back this up, because I've never published any of these predictions, or in any way documented them for others to review. So you'll have to take my word for it.

At the moment I am writing this, on Super Tuesday, only the VA, GA, and VT polls have closed, and results predicted by the AP. In VA and GA H. Clinton won. In VT, Sanders won.

Sanders has been a bit of a wild card, because I did not think he would get anywhere near as far as he has gotten. He got a lot more support than I imagined possible. But, as of now, we have what I believe is a sufficient trend. Sanders will not be able to supplant Clinton as the Dem nominee.

The election will be Trump vs Clinton. If the Republicans had ANYBODY who could raise even a modest challenge to Trump, I am sure that dirty tricks would carry the day, and we would not see Trump run for Prez. But they don't. Nobody is coming close.

Clinton will win the general election by a tiny margin. Pretty much like Gore v. Bush.

Clinton's presidency will be exceptionally bad. It will be marred by extreme partisan division, and foreign policy mistakes. She won't do as badly as Bush 2 did, but she won't be very far off that either.

She will be a one-term president, and in the election in 2020 we will see a Republican win with a very solid majority, with a Reagan-style (i.e. long-term) change in direction.

On the other hand, I put Trump at a 40% chance to win. If Trump wins, he will either be the practical man that his moderate supporters believe him to be (in spite of his inflammatory rhetoric), or he will be an oddball prez, and another one-termer. There is a third possibility, although I do not think it is likely. Trump could become a demagogue prez, relying on mob approval to discrimate against emotionally persuasive target groups. Like ragheads. You get my drift.

There you have it. It's not news. Not yet. Just little ol' me, puttin' my 2 cents out there for all to see for once. If I have to eat crow at some point? Well, I guess I'll just have to buckle down and do it. But I'm not betting on it.

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