I originally wrote this in 2022, but did not "publish" it. Everything I know, everything that has happened since, tells me this is accurate - but I hate stirring the political pot. Regardless, saying this is important. The conflict in Ukraine is not about just Russia and Ukraine. It is about democracy, the rule of law, civil rights for the common man, and the whole panoply of western values in civilization.
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It's been nearly 20 years since I worked in Russia. Just short of 2 decades. It amazes me that it has been so long. Back then I made some conservative observations based on what I saw. The worst case scenarios of those observations have been validated. Repeatedly.
It was pointed out to me, back then, by someone I still trust, that there was (and is) a faction in Ukraine regarded as Fascist, because they supported the Nazis in WW2. The situation was (and is, as they always are) more complicated than that, but that was a widely held public opinion/knowledge. In 2022 we saw this opinion/knowledge take full bloom as Putin's war to obliterate any Ukrainian resistance to Russian dominance.
I see the possibility that, Putin is, as he ages, suffering from the very typical (usually male) malady of "leaving something behind". Medieval knights and lords would take on quests, or build churches, or fund something religious. That such activities, in medieval times, were so common has a lot to do with the huge role religion played in their lives, right? But you get the picture, yes? Those men had finally sat down for a dinner and conversation with the character in the hood, the one carrying the scythe. Often they had faced him before, but there was never time then for the equivalent of a conversation. They were, in their age, feeling deeply mortal, and their reaction was to try and leave something behind that would outlast them. Having been in that position a couple of times, a bit earlier than normally expected, I can understand the desire.
Putin has long ago said that the collapse of the Soviet was a shameful time. But he was (and is) obviously not concerned about the economic and moral aspects - he was (and is) concerned with the power aspects. Russia, the USSR, was POWERFUL. And they lost that power. I've seen that sentiment echoed in modern Russian citizens. In response to a question about how can they possibly like Stalin, they respond that "he was powerful', "he got respect in the world". So, some citizens miss having that power. And they see Putin as the most likely person to restore that level of power. As one of my work acquaintances said "maybe Russia needs a strong president" (as opposed to the democratic idea of a president representing the people).
So, I predicted, so many years ago, that Putin, and Russia, would try and isolate Ukraine by taking the Donbass - the industrial heart of Ukraine. This would leave Ukraine much like Moldova - very reliant on agricultural income, and thus POOR. Since industrialization, nobody has done well on agriculture alone.
What I expected, then, in 2022, was an extension of 2014 - solidify control of the Donbas (roughly the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, or the easternmost section of Ukraine). The Donbas was the source of Ukraine's industrial capacity.
The Crimean takeover, in 2014 was, in Russian eyes, justified. After all, Russia had a major military and population interest there. And, there was enough truth to that for the rest of the world to turn a blind eye to that.
Putin has some history here. Georgia, Chechnya, remember? So, I forecast that Putin would not try to completely take over Ukrainian territory. Rather, he would try to economically isolate Ukraine as Moldova is isolated. Minimum fuss, minimum bother, international players could ignore his actions.
But that's not what Putin did in 2022. In 2022 Putin went all out. The obvious and immediate objective of the action was complete control of ALL Ukrainian territories.
There were lots of rumors about Putin facing down cancer. Which fits in the "old man" syndrome I mentioned before. Ukraine would be Putin's cathedral for history. Except, what Putin started probably wouldn't end with one cathedral (that cathedral being Ukraine). Putin has LONG AGO said that ALL of what the Soviet lost should be back inside the Russian sphere.
So, Putin crossed his Rubicon. Now, we are the Roman Senate. Whether we like it or not, he has declared war on us. Nuclear, whatever, it no longer matters, because war is on.
Anyone who knows me will know I have opposed EVERY war the US has been involved in since, and including, Vietnam. They've all been very stupid wars to be involved in, with the possible exception of Bush1's limited action in Kuwait and Iraq. Otherwise, none of them should have been engaged in.
There have been, and are, lots of wars, lots of conflicts, in many other areas of the world. But the future of democracy in the world is what is at stake in Ukraine. Nothing less.